Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 12.425391 14.223250 16.159869 18.397345 20.907327 23.632203 26.810321
2025-06-01 9.735529 12.161959 14.978751 18.475258 22.682792 27.565664 33.643020
2025-06-08 8.211779 10.857797 14.081213 18.269132 23.535203 29.903734 38.150896
2025-06-15 7.197281 10.011705 13.590202 18.429542 24.751983 32.674479 43.287512
2025-06-22 6.569731 9.545358 13.469507 18.959192 26.364931 35.922950 49.089948
2025-06-29 5.801276 8.788644 12.868097 18.761303 26.954714 37.824842 53.192808
2025-07-06 4.941926 7.801750 11.842934 17.866245 26.488042 38.233062 55.253785
2025-07-13 4.605858 7.532055 11.789194 18.304303 27.860932 41.169915 60.857156
2025-07-20 4.286855 7.250614 11.683563 18.639465 29.079999 43.923129 66.303321
2025-07-27 3.908695 6.836896 11.338849 18.579494 29.695420 45.820331 70.588836
2025-08-03 3.538547 6.397768 10.913950 18.354397 30.029772 47.298653 74.301780
2025-08-10 3.260405 6.081972 10.653213 18.355687 30.690630 49.266141 78.793811
2025-08-17 3.040380 5.850160 10.517921 18.558897 31.694714 51.825694 84.340166
2025-08-24 2.800176 5.560315 10.263391 18.547433 32.352488 53.881363 89.208141
2025-08-31 2.557806 5.241040 9.929697 18.371799 32.718271 55.476583 93.401107
2025-09-07 2.393080 5.048305 9.797168 18.521972 33.616457 57.936221 99.033577
2025-09-14 2.301811 4.985576 9.887351 19.057960 35.179775 61.517021 106.580443
2025-09-21 2.111943 4.712209 9.574655 18.857770 35.470337 63.028672 110.832836
2025-09-28 1.847853 4.263414 8.901549 17.959059 34.491779 62.387334 111.514681
2025-10-05 1.776782 4.204000 8.957770 18.398979 35.886926 65.766924 118.979458
2025-10-12 1.698044 4.120677 8.960536 18.735746 37.108385 68.892580 126.123361
2025-10-19 1.580642 3.942335 8.762518 18.675477 37.600079 70.776017 131.216914
2025-10-26 1.455658 3.734580 8.489140 18.449349 37.768593 72.094748 135.376671